The following is some great commentary on the economy.  Incline Village Real Estate has been stabilizing and sales volume is steadily increasing as of 3/10/2011.   Great time to come to Tahoe and own the home you have always wanted.  Tim Lampe, Realtor, Incline Village Nevada.

 

Weekly National Economic Commentary March 10, 2011

 

Three things are driving the markets: 1) The turmoil in Libya, which has caused western nations to stop buying Libyan crude oil—and that, in turn has raised oil prices; 2) the very real possibility that a European nation (notably Greece) could default on its debt; and, in a contrary vein, 3) the signs of economic strength in the U.S., which continue to affirm our slow march toward recovery.

 

The ISM (Institute of Supply Management) Index, for example, which provides a solid insight into the number of orders for manufactured goods, hit 61.4 in February. That’s its highest level since 2004. New Factory Orders, meantime, rose by 3.1% in January. And the non-manufacturing ISM Index reached 59.7 in February, its highest point since August 2005.

 

Meanwhile, Residential Construction Spending rose by 5.3% in January, the fourth increase in the past five months. And Consumer Spending in our nation, buoyed by the new, lighter withholding rules, rose by 0.2%

 

All of that is undeniably good news, but there are weaker indicators to contend with—most notably the recent Mortgage Applications Index (compiled by the Mortgage Bankers Association), which found that new applications were down by 6.5% in the week ending Feb 25. The important applications for new purchase money mortgages, which lead to new completed purchase applications, were also down—by 6.1%.

 

The most important indicators, though, involve employment. The figures have improved, but the news, as is so often the case, is mixed.

First, notice that the number of new applications for unemployment insurance fell by a heartening 25,000 in the week ending February 26. The monthly employment report should therefore have offered up improvements over the reports in recent months.

 

And indeed it did. A rather strong 192,000 new payroll jobs were reported for the month of February, and though analysts were quick to note that we need upwards of 300,000 new jobs a month if we are to pare down unemployment in a meaningful way, the number of new jobs was heartening to investors, buoying the yield on Treasury securities as well as mortgage rates. Meantime, the unemployment rate fell to 8.9%.

 

But we have many fewer workers looking for jobs than might be expected and larger numbers of people drawing Social Security Disability Insurance than in the past. Further, the newly-created jobs pay much less than the jobs they are replacing. Still, the recovery picture is improving, step by (slow and unsteady) step.

 

March 9, 2011

 

KEY INDICATORS [3/8/11]

 

Gold $1430.60/ounce [up]

Crude Oil(Brent) $113.30/brl

[down]

U.S. Dollar to…

    Euro .7197 [down]

    Japanese Yen 82.70 [up]

    Chinese Yuan 6.5687 [down]

    Canadian Dollar 0.9726 [down]

6-mo Treasury Bill Yield 0.15%

10-yr Treasury Note Yield 3.53%

[6-month down 1 bp, 10-yr up 8 bps]

11th Dist Cost of Funds 1.484%[-]

30-yr Fixed-rate Mortgage 5.18%

15-yr Fixed-rate Mortgage 4.50%

1-yr ARM 3.68%

[HSH average includes jumbo rates: 30-yr down 5 bps; 15-yr down 6 bps; 1-yr ARM down 4 bps]

Freddie Mac weekly average rate

            4.87% [down 8 bps]

 

Mortgage Bankers Association Mortgage Applications Index

week ending 2/25

   Overall

    Down 6.5%; Up 13.2%

the week prior

   Purchase Money Loans

    Down 6.1%; Up 5.1%

            the week prior

  Refinancing Loans

    Down 6.5%; Up 17.8%

the week prior

 

Jobless Claims 2/26

    368,000 – prior week 388,000 (rev) – Continuing claims down 59,000 to 3.774 million

 

New Factory Orders Jan

    Up 3.1% (strong