The Incline Village Real Estate Market is moving quite well for the off-season.  With REO, Trustee Sales, Short Sale listings fueling the push, I see the Incline Village luxury distressed listings getting the most market attention.  If you have cash, I have the inside track to some of the best luxury home listings in this market.  These are A and B  luxury high end properties.  I have been in multiple offer situations on most of the best valued REO and Trustee Sale Homes.
So, buyer preparation is mandatory to be successful.  The economy is now supporting a stable Lake Tahoe Real Estate market, bouncing off the bottom of the lowest sale prices and interest rates in many years.   

With higher retail sales, a lower level of new unemployment insurance claims, rising mortgage applications, and a slightly improved NAHB Mortgage Market Index reading of builder optimism, there are reasons to hazard a slight feeling of optimism. Who knows--perhaps, hidden from view by all the uproar surrounding QE2, there are genuine signs of (dare we say?) a sustainable recovery on the horizon.

I hope I am not eating these words next week. I may well be, as you know by now. But wouldn't it be just like the economy to slip in signs of improvement when we're not looking?

Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.

November 21, 2010

 KEY INDICATORS [11/21/10]

 Gold $1336.20/ounce [down]

Crude Oil(Brent) $84.72/brl [down]

U.S. Dollar to…

    Euro .7349 [up]

    Japanese Yen 83.39 [up]

6-mo Treasury Bill Yield 0.18%

10-yr Treasury Note Yield 2.88%

[6-month up 3 bps, 10-yr up 22 bps]

11th Dist Cost of Funds 1.663%[-]

30-yr Fixed-rate Mortgage 4.62%

15-yr Fixed-rate Mortgage 4.02%

1-yr ARM 3.73%

[HSH averages rates: 30-yr

up 1 bp;15-yr down 3 bps; 1-yr ARM up 1 bp]

 

Mortgage Bankers Association Mortgage Applications Index

week ending 11/21/2010

  Overall

    833.3 (up 5.8%; down 5%

the week prior)

  Purchase Money Loans

    188.7 (up 5.5%; up 1.4%

            the week prior)

  Refinancing Loans

    4587.7 (up 6%; down 6.4%

the week prior)

 

Jobless Claims 11/6

    435,000 – prior week 457,000 – continuing claims at 4.301 m

 

Retail Sales Oct

    Up 1.2% (unexpectedly strong) – 7.3% higher than year-ago sales

 

Producer Price Index (PPI) Oct

    Up 0.4% - food & energy removed from data, down 0.6%

 

NAHB Housing Mkt Index Oct

    Up 1 point to 16

 

Weekly Commentary

 Several of the indicators cited to the left may prove mildly confusing. It’s worth making some attempt at clarifying them, seeking out the reasons for an unexpected rise or fall and looking for the broader significance of the numbers. Let’s look at the questions raised by the indicators, and make certain we pay attention to the hints of genuine recovery among these figures.

 First, why have interest rates—particularly longer-term rates—been rising while commodities prices have been falling? We’ve had a pair of forces acting on the markets over the past week. The first is the return of worries about foreign sovereign debt, especially in weaker European Union nations (notably of late, Ireland). This drives the value of the euro down, elevating the value of the dollar in Europe. The fear factor sends European investors and others back into the safe haven of Treasury securities. But a falling euro tends to take the edge off of concerns about rising inflation (as does China’s move to reduce short-term interest rates). As a result, the price of gold declines. But, at the same time, the possibility of rising inflation currently haunting American credit markets is pushing American rates higher.

 

“Rumors and sighs,” in other words—nothing really substantial is moving these markets.

 

Second, then, why would mortgage applications be rising? Because it looks like rates may continue to rise—so it’s time to grab a loan and lock the rate before it rises still further. (This could turn around in a day, of course.)

 Third, why are retail sales figures looking so good? It turns out that there are many reasons, the primary one being that people simply  seem to be buying more—which may be a harbinger of a better holiday sales season than has been expected. Another reason, though, is that autos are selling: The retail sales figure with auto sales removed was a far weaker 4.3%.

 Fourth, why does the Producer Price Index look so pathetic if you remove food and energy prices from the data? Because prices for new auto models declined and the lowered prices were factored into the overall index. Further, the index was elevated by higher energy prices.

 Pay attention to the retail sales data. October was the second month to report over 7% higher sales than year-prior figures. This is worth watching, as the improved jobless claims figure may also be worth on-going scrutiny, though the latter has a tendency to be volatile. In any case, these may be signs of a genuinely improving economy.