Don't let anyone tell you different.  The skiing is great.  I have 3 kids on the Northstar Ski Team and the conditions for man made snow are awesome.  Tim Lampe

Dec. 15 2011     

With the start of winter just a week away on the calendar, it looks as if Incline Village might have to wait at least until then for conditions that look, and feel, like winter. After a brief tease today, the dry pattern that has held the Sierra in its grip since before Thanksgiving will re-assert itself. The next chance for serious snow will be the middle of next week, and even that chance is still quite uncertain at this time.

A quick moving storm sliding down the coast of California could drop a dusting of snow on the western slopes of the Sierra this morning as it moves south. This system, which was originally forecast to slide down the eastern slope and into Nevada, switched tracks relatively late in the game and now looks to mostly miss the eastern side as it moves into Southern California. But the system is not packing much moisture, and it's moving too fast to deliver significant accumulations to Tahoe. Areas near and south of Highway 50 will probably get the most snow as the trailing edge of the system drags past the Sierra, but even there accumulations are expected to be light.

In the wake of this storm the forecast calls for high winds over the mountains, with gusts perhaps exceeding 50 mph. By Friday a ridge of high pressure will begin to build, and an inversion layer will likely bring warmer temperatures to the higher elevations while the Sierra valleys remain fairly cool through the weekend,

Another storm headed our way late Sunday is also expected to break apart before it reaches the Sierra, offering us at best another tease but not the start of winter most of us are waiting for. One piece of the system is forecast to slide by to the north of Tahoe while the remainder splits off into what is known as a "closed low" and spins down the coast of California.

A low pressure system forecast for the middle of next week still has a chance to hit Tahoe, but the computer forecast models are still in conflict about its likely trajectory. It could prove to be yet another disappointment. But that's the one to keep our eye on for now.